Fantasy Update: Last-minute Auto Club 400 advice

Martin Truex Jr. will start on the pole for the second straight race in Sunday’s Auto Club 400 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Kyle Busch will start on the front row and defending race winner Kyle Larson is lurking in the third position. With all three practice sessions for this race in the books, we’ve dissected the numbers and 10-lap averages to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you go to make roster decisions for the fifth Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of 2018.

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MORE: Fantasy analysis for Auto Club | Full lineup | 10-lap averages

RJ Kraft’s revised Fantasy Live lineup following practices and qualifying:
1: Kyle Busch
2: Kyle Larson
3: Kevin Harvick
4: Brad Keselowski
5: Erik Jones
Garage: Clint Bowyer

Analysis: The big move for me is my decision to play Kevin Harvick. All week long I have been fretting about the usage limit but I’m deciding to ride the hot hand one more week. The No. 4 car has shown no signs of slowing down — topping the 10-lap averages board in Saturday’s two practices — and has to be considered the favorite as he goes for his fourth win in a row. This play will potentially bite me down the line but I’m willing to live with the consequences of that decision. If you have used Harvick less than twice, he is a must-start here. If you are concerned about the usage, stacking the deck on bonus picks with Harvick is advisable.

Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Clint Bowyer were part of my initial lineup and nothing I’ve seen this weekend has convinced me to change that. Busch is a three-time winner at Auto Club Speedway and topped the board in final practice. Larson is the defending race winner, has won the last four races contested on 2-mile tracks and has been fast all weekend long. Keselowski has a win and a 4.0 average finish in his last three starts at Auto Club. He was second in the 10-lap average in second practice and I like his ability to nab some stage points as he starts 11th. Bowyer was my original garage pick, has shown speed all weekend and finished third in this race last year. Despite starting 26th, I like stashing him in reserve if something goes wrong with one of my starters.

My other roster change is swapping in Erik Jones for Chase Elliott. I love Elliott’s record on the 2-mile tracks but the 31st-place starting position has me concerned that I will miss out on valuable stage points. I like having one of the drivers starting at the back in my lineup (for me, that’s Bowyer) but I’d prefer not to have two in that regard especially since the teams will be on equal footing when it comes to tires. Enter Jones into the fray, who was in the top six of 10-lap averages for both Saturday practices. Considered Ryan Blaney for this spot as well, but Jones has a more favorable history here and will start in the top five.

Remember to set your roster and bonus picks ahead of Sunday’s 3:30 p.m. ET start time and to keep tabs on your team during the race with the ability to go to the garage locking at the completion of Stage 2.